OTAP is currently monitoring two developing stories. The first is the US war on Iran, which continues to stretch on with mixed signs of the official conclusion. Negotiations stretch on, while agreements are frequently amended or repealed. The risk of catastrophic escalation targeting civilian infrastructure remains very high. Similarly, the conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan remains critical, with tensions recently flaring again. The structural drivers of the war remain unresolved, as Afghanistan is unlikely to crack down on Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), while Pakistan's military leadership considers the TTP a fundamental enemy with whom negotiation is impossible.

We are also closely monitoring the humanitarian crisis in Cuba. Prolonged blackouts have pushed essential services, including hospitals, water supply, and food distribution, to the limit, sparking public protests. Russia has signalled its intent to supply Cuba with oil tankers, introducing a potential flashpoint. Any resolution of the growing humanitarian crisis depends heavily on whether Washington is willing to define and offer concrete terms for any deal.